7/23/08

Starting to Buy JNJ and PG, Random Thoughts on PM, DD, RJA

Starting tomorrow I'll be buying shares of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Procter & Gamble (PG). It'll be a slow process. I have over 100 free trades at Sogotrade (review coming soon), so I'll be buying a few shares at a time. I plan to keep them forever (but sometimes I can't help myself and sell early when a position rises quickly in price).

Philip Morris International
(PM), which I own, reported solid earnings today and raised its forecast for the year. If the stock continues lower, I'll buy more. I think it's one of those rare, great stocks with massive future earnings and dividend growth potential. The falling dollar will help too. There are risks, sure, but I think it's worth it.

I'm trying to focus more on domestic dividend paying stocks with a large portion of sales coming from overseas, as well as international stocks. Most of the world's future growth will happen outside the US. Since US consumers buy a lot of the world's junk, their plight will slow growth internationally. This might provide for some cheap international stocks going forward.

I bought and sold Du Pont (DD), thinking I could buy it again at a lower price. Have I missed my chance? It went below $41 this month. Today it's around $45. Agriculture should continue going strong. People have to eat, after all. The housing market will eventually bottom (or we're all fracked, as they say on BSG). When that picks up again, DD's non-agricultural divisions will start growing again.

Speaking of agriculture, the Jim Rogers agriculture ETN (RJA), which I own, hasn't been doing too well lately. It's now below my original buy price of $10.90. This has happened before. It then went to over $12. It has also been over $13. Both times I debated selling, and didn't. I should have. I'd buy it back around now. Next time it goes above $12, I'm selling it. This is one of those weird positions that I have mixed feelings about. When it goes up, I'm making money. When it goes down, food prices go lower, which is good for everyone (including me), except farmers, I suppose. It's sort of a hedge on the world's misfortune.