Oh what luck I just bought TBT for less than I planned (though it may fall more), at $46.34. Reasons for buying are in my last post here. I'll wait for a 10% decline to buy some more. Since leveraged ETFs underperform when there's volatility, a safer play would be to buy very deep in the money puts, say for Jan '11, on TLT. Say a 150 strike or higher. That's almost like shorting TLT, but your downside is limited (and the put will probably still expire in the money even if yields go back down, though anything is possible).
The market is down big today (so far, it can always turn around). Why? Sell the news: Tim Geitner unveiled his plan, which apparently is a set of principles and a new government website. The Senate also voted on and passed its version of the bailout pork spending bill. Now they'll argue with the House over how much they should spend for useless stuff. The market went even lower after Bernanke started talking.
Nothing good will happen until they close down the incompetent banks and give their assets to the competent ones.
Some interesting reading:
Disclosure: Long TBT.
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